Megathread #0003: "[The Kurds] didn't help us at Normandy"

[foxfirefey]

The White House and Congress are locked in a power struggle over impeachment investigation proceedings; meanwhile, the US has been abandoning its Kurdish allies to Turkey's aggression.

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Connecting Blizzard's China capitulation with US foreign policy drops

[foxfirefey]

US dropped so many balls diplomatically in the past few years so this one barely registers, but still, a noteworthy dropped ball is the US failure to respond, or even really notice, China's economic sanctions against S Korea after the THAAD deployment.

— T.K. of AAK! (\@AskAKorean) October 8, 2019

The tweet thread describes the fate of the Korean company Lotte, utterly decimated because it did something China didn't like (at our behest).

In other words, in just two years PRC sanctioned one of the most successful and well-rooted international firms to a point that it is basically withdrawing from the market entirely, losing more than $2B in the process.

This is what's ahead of US companies doing business in PRC.

— T.K. of AAK! (\@AskAKorean) October 8, 2019

[foxfirefey]

1/ Here's the real reason Kickstarter doesn't want to recognize the union: they want to limit the bargaining unit.

In the past (say at a factory) the divide between the workers on the line and the management was clear. And mgmt was kept out of the union for good reason... https://t.co/9ZllAmqd80

— NYC-DSA Tech Action🌹 (@NYCDSATechWG) October 8, 2019

2/ but if you work a white-collar tech job, you probably work on small teams, with different folks taking leadership roles on those teams.

This blurs the lines of "management" legally, although it is clear who the bosses are and who the workers are to anyone at the company...

3/ Kickstarter is clearly hoping that Trump's anti-labor NLRB will legally misclassify a big chunk of their workers as management using outdated rules and keep them out of the union!

This wouldn't just be bad for @ksr_united ...

4/4 this would set a terrible precedent for all tech worker unions going forward!

If you work in tech you should demand Kickstarter voluntarily recognize the union. If they don't it might mean you're kept out of your union when the time comes!

Kurds and WWII

[foxfirefey]

They, apparently, did help us during WWII:

The #Kurds DID fight on the Allied side in WW2.
They helped break the siege following the 1941 pro-Nazi Coup d'état in Iraq & were part of the (pro-Allied) Iraq Levies. By 1942 Kurds made up 25% of the force. By 1943, 10 of the 44 companies comprising the Iraq Levies were Kurdish https://t.co/ggoP22XRbW

— Akil N Awan (\@Akil_N_Awan) October 10, 2019

Elections news - Oct 21, 2019

[chrysostom]

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HOUSE

• CA-50: Things continue to look not great for the re-election campaign of Rep Duncan Hunter (R) - he failed to get the endorsement of his county Republican Party, despite representing the district for 10 years.


• NY-17: Appropriations chair Rep Nita Lowey (D) is retiring.  District is Solid D (Clinton 59-38), so a lively primary is likely.  No, district resident Chelsea Clinton is not interested.


• FL-19: Rep Francis Rooney (R) is retiring, continuing the rapid turnover in this seat.  Seat is Solid R (Trump 53-44).


• MD-07:  Oversight and Reform chair Rep Elijah Cumming (D) passed away.  A special election will be scheduled for the spring sometime; the seat is Solid D (Clinton 76-20).


• TX-28: Interesting development as Emily's List endorses Jessica Cisneros in her primary challenge against Rep Henry Cuellar (D), the most conservative Democrat in the House.  Cuellar will be a tough nut to crack, though.


• TX-17: Former Rep Pete Sessions's oddball comeback attempt may have hit another snag, as he appears to be tied up in some Giuliani shenanigans.

SENATE

• AK: Dems have aligned behind independent Al Gross to run against incumbent GOPer Dan Sullivan.  Alaska has an unusual system where you can run both as an independent and as a party nominee.


• CO: Keating Research poll has likely Dem nominee Hickenlooper up 53-42 on GOP incumbent Gardner. 


• KS: Dems appear to be clearing the field for new candidate, state Senator Barbara Bollier.  Bollier, who as a Republican endorsed Democrat Laura Kelly (who went on to win), and then switched parties.  Kansas last elected a Democrat in 1932, so they probably need a combination of a moderate candidate like Bollier - who's already scored a GOP endorsement - and the GOP nominating Kris Kobach (who of course lost to Kelly in that governor's race).  Kobach is up to the usual, having gotten caught employing a known white nationalist.


• MI: Divergent polls in this race - Marketing Resource Group (R) has incumbent Dem Peters up only 43-40 over presumptive GOP nom James, whereas Target-Insyght has James up 53-37.  A GOP win here seems unlikely - Trump is solidly underwater in Michigan, and James just lost a Senate race last year - but Peters is famously the unknown senator, and stranger things have happened.


• GOP senators up in 2020 are looking more vulnerable, as approval ratings are sliding, and fundraising is anemic.  Flipping the chamber is still a challenge for the Democrats, but things look more positive than in the summer.

STATES

• KY gov: The first public poll of this race in forever comes from Mason-Dixon, which has it knotted up 48-48 between Dem Beshear and incumbent GOP gov Bevin.


• LA gov: Mixed polling for the runoff election for Louisiana governor, after incumbent Dem Edwards couldn't break the 50% markoff in the initial election (he hit 47%). An internal from ALG has Edwards up 52-36 on GOPer Rispone; We Ask America (R) has it tied 47-47. Obviously, not having gotten a majority in the first round makes Edwards look vulnerable, but interestingly, Dems tend to overperform in Louisiana runoffs.


• LA: Even if Edwards holds on to the governor's mansion, he faces trouble in the legislature.  Republicans sealed a supermajority in the Senate already; they have a decent chance of doing so in the House as well, depending how runoffs go.  Edwards has a somewhat more constructive relationship with the legislative GOP than in many states, but it'd still be better to have at least a chance to block veto overrides.


• OR: GOP efforts to recall governor Kate Brown (D) have failed.


• TX: Turmoil continues in the state House as secret tapes have been released showing the Speaker planning to screw over cities and counties.  Democrats have a shot at flipping the chamber in 2020 - and it's the suburbs that are the potential flips, so these remarks seem ill-chosen.  The effort to flip starts this year with a key special election.

ODDS & ENDS

• How Ohio nearly purged 40,000 voters from rolls in error.


• State court in Kentucky blocks the state from creating inactive voter list.  Unclear to me how this would vary from other states that have done so (such as Ohio, above).


• Voters are suing Indiana to force replacement of voting machines with no paper trail.

BREAKING: Federal Judge Orders Un-Redacted Mueller Report and Grand Jury Evidence Be Given to House

[zeushumms]

Not obviously connected to the impeachment, but important all the same:

BREAKING: Federal Judge Orders Un-Redacted Mueller Report and Grand Jury Evidence Be Given to House Judiciary (Connor Mannion, Mediaite)

A federal judge has ruled the House of Representatives is entitled to grand jury material and un-redacted portions of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report into President Donald Trump.

The judge ordered [pdf] the Justice Department to turn over all redacted portions of the Mueller report, grand jury material and exhibits and transcripts to the House Judiciary Committee by Oct. 30.

Ukraine is watching

[zeushumms]

Trump’s Betrayal of the Kurds Has Ukraine Worried They Could Be Next (Greg Walters and Christopher Miller, Vice News)

“Whoever did this once might very well do it again.”

President Trump’s willingness to withhold crucial military aid while pressing Ukraine to launch politically helpful investigations into his rivals startled Kiev.

But his abrupt abandonment of America’s Kurdish allies in Syria unleashed its anxieties. Now they’re wondering if they might be next.

“That situation tells Ukraine that our country can rely only on itself,” Commander Vyacheslav “Eagle Owl” Vlasenko, a stony-faced leader of Ukrainian forces in the war-torn Donbas region, told Vice News.

Re: BREAKING: Federal Judge Orders Un-Redacted Mueller Report and Grand Jury Evidence Be Given to Ho

[zeushumms]

wait, I read the article more. The judge also ruled that the impeachment didn't need a formal house vote to begin.

[chrysostom]

HOUSE

• TX-28: The progressive attempt to primary out conserva-Dem Rep Henry Cuellar continued to get attention, as AOC endorsed his challenger, Jessica Cisneros.


• CA-50: Things continue to look not great for indicted Rep Duncan Hunter (R), as his wife is planning to testify against him.


• OH-13: Rep Tim Ryan (D) ended his no-hope presidential bid, and will be running again for his House seat.  Seat is Solid D.


• HI-02: Fellow no-hope presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard (D, I guess) has announced that she will not be running again for her House seat (filing deadlines would have allowed her to do so pretty easily).  Gabbard already had a primary challenger in state Sen Kai Kahele; other folks will likely now jump in.  Seat is Solid D.

SENATE

• KS: SecState Pompeo continuing to give off signals he's going to run for Senate.  He visited the state yet again this week, and met with Charles Koch.  Pompeo would presumably be a strong favorite in both the primary and the general, although it's possible his involvement in the Ukraine quid pro quo could damage him.


• MI: Presumptive GOP nominee John James was spotted in old photos hanging out with Ukraine scandal figures Rudy Giuliani and Lev Parnas.


• Interesting Crystal Ball analysis that presidential and Senate battlegrounds are possibly out of sync.

STATES

• IN: AG Curtis Hill escaped criminal charges apparently groping multiple women at a work party last year, but will now be the target of a civil suit.


• MS gov: Internal poll by Hickman for Hood  has Dem AG Hood up 46-42 on GOP LG Reeves.  Mason-Dixon, on the other hand, has Reeves up 46-43.


• KY gov: One of gov Bevin's GOP primary opponents has endorsed Dem Beshear.


• TX: Shocker as powerful House Speaker Dennis Bonnen is retiring after a set of scandals.  Dems presumably have no shot at his seat (HD-25 went 69-28 Trump), but this kind of turmoil will likely be helpful in their quest to flip control of the House.


• NC gov: Harper Polling out with an early survey of the 2020 governor race has incumbent Dem Cooper leading all plausible GOP candidates by high single digits or more.


• MD: Very longtime Senate president Mike Miller (D) is stepping down for health reasons, and will be succeeded by Sen Bill Ferguson.  Miller has been a blocking point for progressive legislation in this solid blue state; Ferguson is considered likely to be far more helpful.

ODDS & ENDS

• ACLU suing Minnesota to restore voting rights to people who have finished their prison sentences (but are on parole or probation).  Could affect ~52k people.


• Most states are refusing to provide driver's license data to the Census Bureau.  This is yet another attempt to end run the collection of citizenship status.


• Medicaid expansion looks likely to be on the ballot in Oklahoma in 2020 as backers turned in massively more signatures than required.


• The lawsuit over North Carolina congressional gerrymandering has been remanded back to state court after a pointless attempt to move it to federal court (this move already failed in the legislative gerrymandering case).


• Oregon mulling constitutional amendment to allow same day voter registration.  Old people like myself will recall the Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh cult, who were involved in how same-day originally got banned (it was a Bloom County story line and everything).


• Pennsylvania gov Tom Wolf (D) appears to have struck a deal with the GOP-controlled legislature.  In return for eliminating straight party voting, it provides funding for voting machine upgrades, loosens absentee voting and voter registration deadlines, adds no-excuse absentee voting, adds quasi-early voting at the county elections office, and creates a permanent vote by mail list.  On balance, this is probably a positive outcome, and drags PA at least somewhat into the modern voting era.


• NYT on efforts by the GOP in multiple states to suppress the college student vote.

Elections news - Oct 28, 2019

[chrysostom]

HOUSE

• OR-02: Rep Greg Walden (R) is retiring.  Seat is Solid R (Trump 57-36).  Walden's departure brings the number of GOP ranking committee members who are leaving to five.


• CA-25: Rep Katie Hill (D) is resigning in the wake of a scandal involving improper relations with a staffer.  A special election is to be scheduled; they may just be able to squeeze it in on the regular primary date.  Interest from both parties is high in this 50-47 Clinton seat, including from former Rep Steve Knight (R).  District is Lean D.

SENATE

• MI: Cook moves race rating from Likely D to Leans D, in light of strong GOP fundraising and ambiguous polling.

STATES

• LA gov: JMC poll has incumbent Dem Edwards up 48-46 on GOPer Rispone.  With leaners, it's Edwards up 50-47.


• VA: Wason Center poll has Dems with strong leads in four key state Senate districts.  These Wason Center polls have been getting really highly educated responses, and I don't think they're weighting for them, and I am therefore suspicious.

ODDS & ENDS

• A North Carolina court found that the state's Congressional district lines were the product of illegal gerrymandering and ordered the legislature to re-draw them.  Fair lines are likely to result in a 2-4 seat pickup for Dems.


• Also in NC, the court found the legislature's resubmitted lines for legislative districts were acceptable (this was the other gerrymandering case).   This was a bit of an own goal for Dems - although the new lines are definitely fairer, legislature Dems failed to uniformly oppose a sub-optimal plan, being bought off by protecting current legislators.  As a result, Dems will likely pick up some seats, but will be hard pressed to flip either chamber.


• Also also in NC, Dems file lawsuit to restore early voting on Saturday prior to Election Day.  The GOP eliminated it in 2018 as a vote suppression tactic.

Elections news - Nov 3, 2019

[chrysostom]

HOUSE

• IL-15: Rep John Shimkus(R), who had earlier announced his retirement, is maybe reconsidering it.  District is Solid R, regardless.


• CA-25: Trump-bot George Papadopolous has filed to run in the special election for Katie Hill's seat.  Dems would be giddy if he somehow got into the top two round.  Interestingly, Papddopoulos apparently knew about the Hill pictures the day before they came out, so he may be attracting some law enforcement attention.  District is rated as Leans Dem.


• A North Carolina court found that the state's congressional district lines are unconstitutionally gerrymandered (this is under the state constitution).  The legislature will have a chance to re-draw; failing that the court will appoint a special master.  NC is currently 10-3 GOP; Dems are considered likely to pick up 2-4 seats under fairer lines.


• TX-28: Incumbent conserva-Dem Rep Henry Cuellar is losing union backing to primary challenger Jessica Cisneros.

SENATE

• AL: Former Sen Jeff Sessions (R) is signaling that he may run for his old seat again against incumbent Dem Doug Jones.  The GOP doesn't seem in any hurry to clear the field for him, though.  Deadline to declare is Nov 8, so we'll know shortly.


• 538 look at competitive races next year.

STATES

• We've got some variety of election in more than 30 states this week.  What to watch: Daily Kos Elections, Daniel Nichanian.


• Crystal Ball looks at some of the biggest elections coming up (KY gov, MS gov, VA legislature).


• LA gov: JMC has incumbent Dem Edwards up 50-47 on GOPer Rispone.  Edgewater Research poll finds the same margin. The runoff is Nov 16.


• MS gov: A federal district court declined to take action on the Jim Crow-era law that requires statewide candidates to win a majority of state house districts.  However, he did strongly signal that he would do if the situation arose (i.e., that Dem Hood wins the popular vote for governor, but not a majority of districts).


• Texas GOP saying as many as 33 state House seats could be in play next year.  Dems need 9 seats for the majority (8, if they win a special election this week).

ODDS & ENDS

• Meanwhile, in the North Carolina legislative gerrymandering case, plaintiffs have appealed eight House districts that were initially accepted in the re-draw.  If the plaintiffs win, Dems will probably net an additional two seats.


• Pennsylvania has formally enacted wide-ranging changes in voting procedures.  This mates a negative change (getting rid of straight-ticket voting) with a host of positive changes; on the net, this is probably a win.


• Arizona ballot measure would add same day voter registration and automatic registration.


• Organizers appear to have successfully gotten an initiative to raise the Florida minimum wate to $15/hr onto the 2020 ballot.  This could goose Dem-favoring turnout, as well.


• Georgia plans to purge some 300k people from the voting rolls for inactivity.  In the "half a loaf" category, they are publicizing the list a la Ohio, so that there's time to remove false positives.


• Dems file suit in NC (to restore "last Saturday" early voting), Texas (to restore "mobile voting" locations), and Michigan (to throw out absentee ballot signature checks).  And TX/AZ/GA over ballot positioning laws.


• FWIW Dept: Starting to see "GOP is getting nervous" stories again.

[chrysostom]

TUESDAY RESULTS

• VA: Democrats flipped both chambers of the Virginia legislature (House now 55-45; Senate now 21-19).  This gives them unified control in VA for the first time in a generation.


• KY: Democrat Andy Beshear unseated GOP incumbent Bevin for Kentucky governor.  There was some unsettling talk of overturning the election, but at this point, that seems to have gone dark.  GOP still controls the legislature, so Beshear's power will be somewhat limited.  The GOP did sweep downballot executive offices.


• MS: The GOP retained unified control in Mississippi, where LG Tate Reeves won a relatively close contest.  Legislative gains for the GOP were small; they also swept downballot executive offices.


• Indy: Dems romped to re-election for Indianapolis mayor, tightened their grip on city council, and flipped some other town councils locally.  This is all in IN-05, possibly indicating it will be competitive, especially since the seat will be open.


• Wichita: Dems flipped the mayor's office in Kansas's largest city.  Dem candidate Whipple, who is gay, withstood late campaign smear attempts by the GOP.


• NYC: New Yorkers overwhelmingly voted to implement instant runoff voting in primary and local elections.


• In specials, Dems flipped MO HD-99, lost NJ SD- 01, and are going to runoff in TX HD-28.


• PA: Regional re-alignment continued in the Keystone State, as Democrats romped to historic wins in the Philly burbs, but saw losses in red-trending SW PA.  Elsewhere in PA, the Working Families Party scored a council seat in Philadelphia, but an attempt to oust retrograde Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) DA Zappala failed.


• Reformist public defender Chesa Boudin won election as DA of San Francisco.


• Seattle: Left candidates mostly did well in City Council voting, despite Amazon dumping barrels of money into the election.


• Crystal Ball E-Day wrap-up.


• As always, Daniel Nichanian's What's On the Ballot is a great source for less-publicized elections of consequence.

HOUSE

• IN-01: Longtime Dem Rep Pete Visclosky is retiring.  District is Solid D, barring any real foul-ups.


• CA-25: Former Rep Steve Knight (R), who lost this seat in 2018 primarily by being asleep at the wheel, is in for the special election.  District is Leans D.


• MA-06: It looks like conserva-Dem rep Seth Moulton - who could forget his thrilling presidential campaign? - is getting a credible primary challenge from the left.


• MD-07: In news designed to make me feel old, Kweisi Mfume is planning on running for the late Elijah Cummings's seat.  Mfume held this same seat back in the 90s.  District is Solid D.


• IL-15: Retiring rep John Shimkus (R), who had briefly flirted with not retiring, is now in fact retiring.  What a roller coaster ride these last few days have been for us all.  District is Solid R.

SENATE

• AL: Former Sen Jeff Sessions (R) is in for the GOP primary.  However, he does not have White House support, and the crowded field seems unlikely to clear for him.


• TX: A U of TX poll finds GOP incumbent Cornyn with pretty anemic approval ratings.  Obviously, Texas is a very steep hill to climb for Democrats (no, Beto is not running), but Cornyn may be more vulnerable than previously thought.


• MA: Senate Dems seem pretty underwhelmed by Joe Kennedy III's primary challenge of Sen Markey.


• Money may not change everything (pace Cyndi Lauper), but it's a big factor in a Senate race, and Dems are outraising the GOP.  The only issue is that small dollar donors aren't necessarily paying attention to the closest races.

STATES

• LA gov: Early voting is always a bit of tea leaf reading, but the general take is that so far, those signs are favorable for incumbent Dem gov Edwards.  The runoff election is this coming Saturday, Nov 16.


• The Alaska Division of Elections says that the recall effort against gov Dunleavy does not meet any of the permissible reasons for a recall under state law.  This looks a bit fishy, though, and recall advocates will be appealing in court.

ODDS & ENDS

• Updated pollster ratings from 538 (and discussion thereof).


• Why are voters still willing to ticket-split for governor, but not any other offices?


• TX GOP mulling attempt to end big city judicial elections, now that Dems are winning them.

 

[chrysostom]

Hi, I'm not longer going to post the Elections News updates here - tbh, not sure if anyone is reading them.

You can always visit at https://lamade.typepad.com/zugzwang/ where I normally update at least once a week. There's an RSS feed, too!